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Thursday, April 19, 2007
Alan Reynolds :: Townhall.com Columnist
What is Income?
by Alan Reynolds
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Two French economists, Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez, can count on a flood of publicity every time they release a new estimate of the share of U.S. income supposedly received by the top 1 percent. Even veteran Washington Post columnist Robert Samuelson approached their latest "astonishing" estimates as unquestionable scripture. "The biggest gains occurred among the richest 1 percent," he exclaimed. "Their share of pretax income has gradually climbed from 8 percent in 1980 to 17 percent in 2005."

Gradually? On the contrary, half of that increase happened in just two years, 1987 and 1988. The top 1 percent's share (of what?) was 13.2 percent in 1988, 14.9 percent in 2003.

To calculate the top 1 percent's share of total income, we need a definition of total income. For postwar data, Piketty and Saez use a modified version of adjusted gross income (AGI). Unfortunately, the Bureau of Economic Analysis calculates that AGI is not even a good measure of AGI -- it was missing $1.1 trillion dollars in 2004, called the "AGI Gap." It is also missing income of non-filers, estimated at $479 billion in 2000.

Transfer payments of $1.5 trillion are arbitrarily excluded, too. Benefits from private pensions qualify as "market income," yet benefits from Social Security do not.

The famed Canberra Group of experts insisted that household income must include cash transfers, food stamps and everything else that "increases the recipient's potential to consume or save." Most or all transfers are included in every official measure of pretax household income from the Congressional Budget Office, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Fed. My family will collect more than $3,000 a month from Social Security next year, but Piketty and Saez say that's not income (the IRS disagrees).

In the American Economic Review last May, Piketty and Saez explained that their top 1 percent figures for other countries "are obtained by dividing top income shares by personal income." Their U.S. figures for 2005, however, are obtained by dividing top income shares by "market income" of $6.8 trillion -- a figure 38 percent smaller than pretax personal income. Income of the top 1 percent ($1.2 trillion) was 10.8 percent of pretax personal income ($11.1 trillion).

Everyone imagines the increase in the top 1 percent share, from about 13 percent in 1988 to 17 percent in 2005, must reflect the lavish salaries of a few thousand CEOs and celebrities. Samuelson tells us, "There were about 18,000 lawyers, 15,000 corporate executives, 33,000 investment bankers (including hedge fund managers, venture capitalists and private-equity investors) and 2,000 athletes who made roughly $500,000 or more in 2004." But that totals 68,000 -- less than 5 percent of the 1.4 million in the top 1 percent.

Such lists of a few high salaries illustrate a pervasive fallacy that the top 1 percent's reported income has been driven up by labor income -- salaries, bonuses and "nonqualified" stock options reported on W2 forms. On the contrary, labor earnings fell from 66 percent of all income reported by the top 1 percent in 1986 to only 57 percent by 2005. Investment income dropped from 23 percent to 14 percent of top 1 percent income over the same period.

Increases in the top 1 percent's income after the 1986 Tax Reform came from more business income being reported on individual tax returns, rather than corporate tax returns. The share of the top 1 percent income coming from business profits jumped from 11 percent in 1986 to 21 percent in 1988, and continued rising to 27 percent in 1994, the year after individual tax rates were increased.

The business share was still 27 percent in 2002, but it rose to more than 29 percent in 2005 after individual tax rates were once again reduced. How and why that happened is a textbook example of why tax return data cannot be used to measure income distribution. And the example is not just in my own textbook, "Income and Wealth." Continued...

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Subject: The Gray Market
May be as large as 15% of GNP. It is the unreported income of individuals and businesses because of the payment of cash wages and the use of barter.

It appears as well that it "satisfices" many members of the lower class, because it enables the person or family to keep getting welfare money and subsidized housing plus Medicaid health benefits while being paid in cash for part time or full time work.

Postulating the above, it can be seen that the American dream of interclass mobility is dimmed by the realization that it would add a new level of expenses to their lives.

I have been amazed, for instance, that the Black communities are not up in arms over illegal aliens taking over what should have been the lowest rungs on an upward economic path. I wuld have thought that members of the lower class and their leaders would have screamed their bloody hearts out. But we have only silence.

This is a very bad sign, for it means that we are in the process of creating what the post WWII veterans programs hoped to stamp out -- a permanent underclass.

The movement through the classes from welfare to wealth is what is essential for the continuation of the republic. The alternative is the creation of a statist society.

Bogus "gaps"
When we talk about "distribution" of income, we risk using the Left's language and buying into their bogus presumptions.

You could talk of "distribution" of income in a statistics sense, where you're simply looking at how many people make x amount of money, then draw a graph over all possible values of x. Unfortunately, to most people I suspect that use of the word "distribution" conveys the idea that somebody is "distributing" income, and unfairly gives huge gobs to somebody else while giving them little. (I suspect that most folks who buy into such an idea don't have high incomes.)

If income is being "distributed," who is distributing it? Somebody huge and powerful, right? God? Well, many would realize we can't make God give us more, so they go to the next most powerful thing they can think of. Of course! the Government! All we have to do is support the candidates who promise to take what was unfairly "distributed" to those nasty old greedy rich people who make WAAAY more than we do (like our landlord, or the CEO of the big-box retailer where we work) and "redistribute" some of it to us. It's Marxist class warfare theory as understood by the stupid and lazy.

All the emphasis is on "getting," regardless of how. Earning and deserving are not taken into account. We are "entitled" simply by taking up space and using oxygen (and voting for leftist redistributionists!)Earning and deserving are not taken into account at all. The masses are led to believe wealth and income 'just happen' and the fact that some get more than others is due to lack of a redistributing government to make it right.

I for one dispute the whole premise behind concepts such as "income gap" or "gap between the rich and poor." If they mean some earn a lot while others earn little, well, such is life, deal with it. If they mean that there are many whose income is $x, quite a few whose income is $x times 100, but rather few whose income is $x times 8 or $x times 15, well, we can blame our government policies, including especially taxation, for making it hard to earn in that middle range.

If you want to produce an apocalyptic economic crash that makes the (largely artificial) Great Depression of the 1930's look like a blip, finish severing the vital relationship between earning, through useful enterprise, and getting. Outlaw high incomes. Do away with the occupations and responsibilities associated with high incomes. Eliminate landlords and mortgage bankers, then try to find housing. Eliminate CEO's and COO's and brilliant entepreneurs, and then go find a job, or basic goods and services. Eliminate highly paid physicians and pharmacists and drug manufacturers and so forth.

Wreck the 'private sector' and then figure out where the government gets tax revenue to support Big Sugar Daddy Pork Barrel Welfare State. An all-out nuclear war might suddenly seem like an idea with merit, by comparison.
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