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Thursday, August 17, 2006
Alan Reynolds :: Townhall.com Columnist
Inflation exaggeration: Part two
by Alan Reynolds
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The core consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.2 percent in July. The chain-weighted core CPI did not rise at all, following two months of 0.1 percent gains. Yet the fixed-weight version seemed to speed up when compared with last year. Why? Because in 2005 the comparable monthly gains averaged just 0.13 from April through September (a 1.6 percent annual rate). If the increase is the same 0.2 percent in August, the year-to-year increase will nonetheless appear to rise from 2.7 to 2.8 percent, because last year's numbers were so low.

Such misleading percentages are just one reason some economists argue the Federal Reserve has not yet done nearly enough to contain core inflation. Last week's column dealt with another reason -- unit labor costs. But there are so many others that the only way to explain why I find these arguments unpersuasive is to go through them one by one.

The case for much more aggressive Fed tightening was carefully articulated in a Wall Street Journal piece by Mike Darda, chief economist at MKM Partners. He proposes "hiking the fed funds rate to 6 percent with more hikes to follow."

"The strongest case against the Fed's decision to pause," he wrote, "was presented by several forward-looking price-level indicators. ... Gold prices have risen to $135 an ounce on the year, while the dollar has fallen 6 percent against G-6 currencies and inflation-linked bond spreads have widened by 33 basis points." Do those variables predict inflation?

First, gold: The price of gold rose from $272 in August 2001 to $725 in May, before dropping back to $623 lately. If rising gold prices predict inflation, why have we not already seen much higher inflation?

The most astonishing increase in the price of gold -- from $239 in April 1979 to $850 on Jan. 21, 1980 -- was a reflection of current inflation. The CPI excluding energy rose by 11.3 percent from December 1978 to December 1979.

In a February paper for MKM Partners, Darda theorized that only increases above about $475 predict future inflation. His graph shows that gold exceeded $475 in February 1983 ($491), yet inflation fell dramatically after that. Gold next peaked at $500 in December 1987, and Darda therefore compares the latest "gold-price breakout" to 1987, which "foreshadowed more than three years of rising core inflation." During those three years, however, the price of gold fell. Gold was down to $271 in 1999 and $279 in 2000. Yet cheap gold then foreshadowed rising core inflation in 2000 and 2001.

Second, the dollar: "The dollar has fallen 6 percent against G-6 currencies," says Darda. That same index fell 44 percent from March 1985 to April 1995 -- from 143.9 to 80.3 -- which was deflationary for Japan but not especially inflationary for the United States. The dollar climbed with the 2001 recession, but was back to 80.1 in December 2004, 80.9 in March 2005 and 82.1 this July. The July figure was up 1.5 percent from March 2005, yet down 4.5 percent from July 2005. Unlike 1985-1995, there is no clear "weakening trend." The dollar matters to the extent that it affects import prices. Aside from oil, import prices were up just 2.3 percent for the year ending in July. Continued...

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Subject:
Also, there is a reason to keep inflation stats low whether they are true or not.

Our entitlement spending has mandatory increases tied to the COLA based on inflation. That is just a side note and not necessarily tied to this article.

Also, the comment about India and China has merit.

In China, they realized that concentrating industry in the major cities was actually causing labor shortages and wage inflation. Some manufactures are leaving China for low wage nations. So, China, started running roads and rail and pipelines and power lines to rural areas. They are building 40 nuclear power plants over the next 15 years for cheap power.

They have, according to recent article in either Time or Newsweek, I forget which, going into farming areas and from the ground up, building new 1 million population cities with high rise office buidlings, places for apartments and homes and I mean real subdivision type home similar to ours, and places for factories and stores and entertainment. Thus, the 29 cent an hour rural worker can start making the $1 to $2 an hour wage like the "big city" guys. They now have a many middle class (4 to 5 times the buying power so a $2 an hour worker is making $10 an hour in buying power) as our entire population and are growing it about 50 million a year. Millionaires in China are growing in number by about 12% a year. Car sales double digit, cell phones? 1 and 1/3 as many owned as in the U.S., Computer sales doubling ever couple of years.

Yet, the prices are staying low, and giving those middle class the buying power to be middle class even on only $8,000 a year in earnings, because they keep expanding the area to include the poor in rural areas were a $1 an hour is a 300% pay raise. India also has more middle class than our entire population and both India and China, graduate 350,000 engineers a year to meet demand.

An $18,000 a year engineer in China has the buying power of a U.S. engineer that makes $80,000 to $90,000. They have a long way to go but we have to compete with them wheter we like to or not and our government is holding us back in many ways.

The cost of inflation hits us hard in social security and Medicare and will get worse with 77 million getting ready to retire. Also, they say if you are 65 now, you can expect to live to 92 and under 65 (thats the 77 million soon to retire) will live to 100. That is 35 years they will draw from social security and Medicare. Is it any wonder they say we have an $84 trillion unfunded liablity in social security and Medicare?

Our budget for 2007 is 2.8 trillion
Quote:
Department of Health and Human Services $697 Billion 60% Growth since 2001
Department of the Treasury $495,Billion 27.8 % Growth since 2001
Social Security Administration $625 Billion 32.3 % Growth since 2001
=================================
http://www.indianchild.com/thomas_jefferson.htm

Why the Treasury dept? Because that is where the $440 billion interest on the national debt is found.

Add Defense at $495 billion which is the smallest of the four when defense is included and you have $2.3 trillon of the $2.8 trillion budget. That means the other 85 or so deparments are all running combined in about 500 billion.

Food stamps, by the way is in the Dept. of Agriculture (they love to hide thing in other departments) and runs about 57 billion. So, now the rest of the government is down to $440 billion or about equal to our interest payment on debt. Look at those growth rates and then talk about inflation and how inflation hurts us. That is all money that has to be collected or borrowed and it in and of itself causes inflation.

What about the Homeland Serurity dept.
$ 31,030,000,000 Increase since 2001 88.7 %
Which when combined with -
Department of Education $ 63,373,000,000 Increase since 2001 58.7 %
you have another $100 billion so now we have most of government running on $340 billion.

Office of Personnel Management $ 70,139,000,000 Increase since 2001 31.9 %
Go to the site and click on the plus sign by it and then the plus sign under the category that comes up and you get a breakdown like this portion of it
Quote:
# Payment to civil service retirement and disability fund $ 27,532,000,000
# Government payment for annuitants, employees health benefits $ 8,765,000,000
snip-----------
Civil service retirement and disability fund $ 61,309,000,000
----------------------------------
http://www.freedomworks.org/budget/

There are some offseting income revenues that are included in the breakdown, so it is pretty unbiased and accurate.

But, bottom line is that socialism is driving our national debt and every COLA increase drives us further into debt.

No Child left behind should not be a federal program. If it is to be one, it should be at the state level.

The Department of education was established in 1979. For about 175 years we had the best education system in the world without a Federal Dept of Education. Socialism was dragging it down, however and by 1979 had declined significantly. So what do we do for a solution? Throw money at it with socialism from the federal level instead of just setting high standards and telling the states to comply with it or lose jobs when business had to leave to find high skilled workers. We solved nothing. We only made the problem worse.

You could write book after book on what socialism has done to inflation, government spending, national debt, loss of jobs and exports in consumer goods, and loss of respect in the world. Who respects France and yet socialism here will soon make us the France of the Americas.

Hank
well said!
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