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Wednesday, October 11, 2006
Austin Bay :: Townhall.com Columnist
China's moment of choice
by Austin Bay
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South Korea's Samsung Corp. is one of the largest private employers in the Texas county I call home. Samsung's international headquarters, located in downtown Seoul, South Korea, lies within the range fan of North Korean FROG-7 type rockets. A North Korean fighter-bomber, flying south from North Korean airspace, will be over Seoul in two to three minutes.

Given the destructive effects of conventional artillery and bombs, North Korea doesn't need a nuke to wreak havoc on Seoul -- which means Kim Jong-Il's criminal regime doesn't really need a nuke to attack Texas' economy, either. Launch a conventional attack across the Korean demilitarized zone (DMZ), and the global managers and senior staff of a major Texas employer risk becoming immediate casualties.

Meet the 21st century -- at least, the economically, politically and technologically linked elements of the 21st century. This linkage explains, in part, why the United States says it regards any military attack on South Korea and Japan as an attack on the United States. This linkage also helps explain China's aversion to war (especially nuclear war) on the Korean peninsula. South Korea has become a major Chinese trading partner.

This is a radical, fundamental change from 1950, when Kim Jong-Il's father, Kim Il-Sung, began the Korean War. Kim Sr. and China's Mao were communist allies. In 2006, Kim Jr. remains a communist. China, while definitely an authoritarian state, now benefits from trade and markets, which means at some point China's leaders know North Korea's regime and rogues like it ultimately threaten the wealth-producing system modernizing their state.

While Stalinist North Korea starves and slips deeper into poverty, democratic South Korea has become a world-class economic and political success. South Korean diplomat Ban Ki-moon has just been nominated to serve as U.N. Secretary-General -- which gives Ban a global podium. Secretary-General Ban sends the message that South Korea is a world leader, while Kim Jong-Il's North is a criminal rogue that meets day-to-day expenses by counterfeiting cash and smuggling drugs.

Except South Korea lacks nuclear weapons. Nukes give Kim one shred of international prestige. For small men like Kim Jong-Il, nukes are their means of escaping tin-pot irrelevance. Instead of killing thousands with conventional munitions, he can now threaten millions with radioactive devastation. With a ballistic missile, his reach extends well beyond Seoul.

Hence Kim's nuclear extortion racket: "Pay me off and guarantee the survival of my impoverished, criminal regime, or I'll nuke my economic and human hostages and cost all of you more in lives and money than the bribes and media kowtow I demand."

But Kim's nuclear test -- though a small bang in a cave -- may have finally wrecked his nuclear racket. Continued...
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About The Author

Austin Bay Austin Bay is author of three novels. His third novel, The Wrong Side of Brightness, was published by Putnam/Jove in June 2003. He has also co-authored four non-fiction books, to include A Quick and Dirty Guide to War: Third Edition (with James Dunnigan, Morrow, 1996).
 
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Reply # 1
Date: Oct 11, 2006 - 8:57 PM EST
Subject: Kim is China's problem
If they do nothing and the regime collapses, they have hordes of people escaping across the border making our Mexican illegal problem look like a walk in the park.

If they let Kim get away with an invasion of S. Korea, they have a successful nut with a nuke on their border, who can only stay in power by creating one crisis after another.

The big unintended consequence of the long appeasement of North Korea is to give Japan reason to seriously re-arm with offensive capabilities, including nukes, missiles, and aircraft. Once this happens, the protective umbrella of the US becomes unnecessary.

We have established some strong economic ties with China, which also makes them less likely to act against our critical interests.

The hold card we have waits silently beneath the waves in the North Pacific aboard the Tridents. What Kim has done is put his entire nation in great peril while in the process of driving his economy into bankruptcy.
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Reply # 2
Date: Oct 11, 2006 - 1:09 PM EST
Is China Rational?

The thesis of this article, as re-stated so well and succinctly by Rightmindedmom, assumes that China will act rationally. I hope that's the case. (Actually, Uncle Max, you're right -- I PRAY that's the case.)

However, I'm concerned that the notion of "saving face" applies equally to China as it does to N. Korea, and that what is in China's best economic (and security) interest will be subordinated to an Asian game of brinksmanship. This is not the time or place for that, but we don't have much control over how the Chinese and North Koreans will handle this.

Modernone: I don't view any of this discussion as a cheap, partisan shot at Clinton, so much as it is a much-needed reminder to ourselves of what has been tried and hasn't worked. You have to acknowledge that there are those who continue to suggest that America ought to be speaking directly and bilaterally with Kim Jong Il, in order to trying to negotiate (appease?) our way out of this very dangerous situation. For those folks, it is fair, and critically important, to note that President Clinton tried this and failed miserably. The fact that it happened on his watch is beside the point (other than that our former president and his supporters all are hyper-senstive to ANY sugestion that they ever did anything wrong).
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