Every four years pundits get to swing for the fences.  Only the timid split differences and hairs.  The pundits worth reading will declare what they see in the very cloudy crystal ball.  Here's my take.

There are two very separate battles within the fight for the GOP presidential nomination.

There is the contest between Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and Fred Thompson to be the conservative challenger to Rudy Giuliani.

And then there is the contest between that challenger and the former New York City mayor.

It is Rudy's hope that the race to be his opponent for the Republican nomination doesn't narrow until after the February 5 primaries in New York, California, Georgia and 17 other states divide up 1,058 delegates.  (The full primary and caucus calendar is here.)  Rudy would love to see a long, drawn-out, bitter struggle among the contenders to be the alternative to his candidacy, a struggle that drains all three of money and energy even as Rudy piles up delegates.

Romney is counting on strong showings in Iowa (January 3), Wyoming (January 5), New Hampshire (January 8 ?) and Michigan (January 15) to send the message that he and only he can match Giuliani in appeal and fund-raising prowess.  Giuliani is counting on Huckabee to bleed Romney in Iowa enough so that the Mainstream Media can proclaim Romney's showing in Iowa a "disappointment" and try to throw the race to race Rudy into disarray.

Do you doubt this analysis?  Here's the lead graph from yesterday's Hotline Blogometer, a sort of perfect pitch for the Inside-The-Beltway political elite:

This item is interesting on many levels.

First, it assumes that the old model of MSM story-telling will be the key to momentum out of Iowa.  In fact, the new media will be so far inside the MSM's OODA loop (look it up) that the "story" out of Iowa will be dictated before a single newspaper hits one driveway.  Given the very early notice of Huck's "surge" in Iowa,  that story is already becoming "Can Romney hang on to his lead and avoid a Dean scream?"  The expectations game evolves at a pace much faster than we have ever seen, and by the time we get to Des Moines, expect the Republican electorate to have adopted a very sane, very sober "a win is a win is a win" view of the results.

Second, the Hotliners seem to assume that a second place for Romney in either Iowa or the Granite State showing is the end of his campaign.  That is clearly not the case, and "Comeback Kid" models abound from elections past.  What matters is a sense of electoral competence. Indeed, if Romney wins in Iowa and the MSM attempts to write-down his victory, he will have an opening to take on the MSM's attempted "management" of the GOP nomination process.  The Republican base hates the MSM with a passion, and it will not give over the management of its momentum to Chris Matthews and George Stephanopoulos.  The days between Iowa and Florida will be a wonderful testing ground for the GOP.  Tear up your scripts.  They have been written by Crimson alums who do not know --cannot know-- the GOP base.

Third, MSM has an interest in a long campaign.  Neither Huckabee or Thompson can sustain such an effort given their fundraising totals and doubts among the base.  Expect the MSM to --unconsciously, but in very real ways-- help Romney rebuild if early setbacks crack his gameplan. Continued...