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Saturday, April 05, 2008
The Democratic Tribes at War
By Michael Barone
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Do you personally know a young voter who has been sucked into Obamamania?


Exit polls have shown that the contest between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama has produced deep divisions among Democratic constituencies. It looks something like tribal warfare. Whites have voted, if you average the results from the states, 53 percent to 39 percent for Clinton; blacks, 80 percent to 17 percent for Obama; Latinos, 58 percent to 39 percent for Clinton; Asians, in California (the one primary state where they're numerous enough to gauge), 71 percent to 25 percent for Clinton.

The differences in voting by the young, overwhelmingly for Obama, and the elderly, overwhelmingly for Clinton, are as large as any I can remember in either a primary or general election. Upscale voters are heavily for Obama; downscale voters are heavily for Clinton.

As the contest has continued, increasing percentages of Clinton and Obama voters say they wouldn't vote for the other candidate against John McCain.

But the exit polls don't show another tribal division, one that emerges when you examine the election returns by county and congressional district. In state after state -- from New Hampshire and Michigan to Texas and Ohio -- Obama runs unusually strongly in counties with large universities. Academics -- and I include here those who choose to live in university towns as well as those actually in or teaching school -- seem to find Obama particularly appealing.

Also, Obama runs unusually well in many state capitals -- Concord, Lansing, Tallahassee, Atlanta, Nashville, Santa Fe, Dover, Jefferson City, Sacramento, Trenton, Madison, Columbus, Austin -- which of course have unusual concentrations of public employees (and in some cases big universities, as well).

Clinton's highest percentages come in counties with large numbers of Latinos and what I call Jacksonians. You can see the latter in counties in what is loosely called Appalachia -- southwest Virginia, southern Ohio, the north end of Georgia, non-metropolitan Tennessee, northern Alabama, northeast Mississippi, all of Arkansas, southern Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, east and central Texas.

These are lands that were settled by the colonial era immigrants from northern England, Scotland and northern Ireland and their descendants, who thronged down the Appalachian chain and then, like their heroes Andrew Jackson and Sam Houston, kept going southwest.

Clinton's strong performance among Jacksonians may reflect her positive appeal (it certainly does in Arkansas), but it also seems to reflect a distaste for Obama. Buchanan County, Va., which borders the yet-to-vote states of West Virginia and Kentucky, voted 90 percent for Clinton and 9 percent for Obama. Continued...

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About The Author
Michael Barone is a senior writer with U.S. News & World Report and the principal co-author of The Almanac of American Politics, published by National Journal every two years. He is also author of Our Country: The Shaping of America from Roosevelt to Reagan, The New Americans: How the Melting Pot Can Work Again, the just-released Hard America, Soft America: Competition vs. Coddling and the Competition for the Nation's Future.
 
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Subject: Clinton campaigning for Barack?
Poor Higiene -
So heavily ingrained with the image of the near God quality of the Clintons. Has he/she forgotten the White House Furniture, Travel-gate, Monica (and a host of others) or the Price pardons? Look at all the support Gore and Kerry got from the Clintons and none of them called Bill/Hill liars like Barack has.
The Clintons are the most audacious spectacle to every arrive on the American political scene. Do you really think they see value in the Dem party if they are to lose a nomination or election (coronation)? They would rather it splinter into millions of bits if they are not the head of it.

An election - not a popularity contest
The swoon over Obama, a very junior Senator privileged to have no political track record, is amazing. On the other hand, Hillary, with tons of baggage and little record to run on is lagging behind in Dem polls. Neither should garner even honorable mention as serious candidates.
The Bush administration, for some appropriate reasons and many not, is so unpopular it allows folks like Hill and Barack the audacity of even stepping on the stage.
Perhaps now that Hill has been outed as a grand embellisher of her record and Obama is proving to be veiled divisionist folks will either get serious about the presidency or become so disenchanted they simply stay home.
Can anyone even imagine a successful outcome were Hill or Barack to debate Putin, Chavez or Kim Jung Il?
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