A confession: It took me quite a while to see anything much to this Milton
Friedman fellow. Back in 1980, his capitalist manifesto, "Free to Choose,"
struck me as only a slightly updated and upgraded version of Barry
Goldwater's "Conscience of a Conservative," a popular political tract the
senator had put his name to 20 years before. Both little books seemed so
simple, their prose so smooth and unchallenging, that I suspected they'd
been ghostwritten by some slick pro. (Goldwater's was.)
What I'd failed to understand was the distinction between simplistic and
simple. Dr. Friedman's ideas were the distillation of years of economic
scholarship before and during his reign at the University of Chicago. What
would become known as the Chicago School of economics would first rival and
then surpass the all too conventional Keynesian wisdom that Milton Friedman
would dethrone. His popular writing was so clear and simple because it was
based on so much research.
While more conventional economists were proposing future programs, young
Friedman realized he was staring at a great experiment that had already been
conducted-the past-and he set out to organize and present its results. By
the time he finished, he not only had toppled John Maynard Keynes, who was
seldom if ever simple, but replaced him as the guiding intellectual force of
modern economics.
Milton Friedman did it by discovering not new but old ideas and old
thinkers. For example, the importance of money to economics (talk about
something too obvious for the sophisticates to grasp!) and good old Adam
Smith. The key to Milton Friedman's genius as an economist-well, one of the
keys-was that he was also an historian.
Dr. Friedman's "Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960," which he
co-wrote with Anna Jacobson Schwartz in 1963, was not exactly a rip-roaring
best-seller. But looking back, which Milton Friedman was very good at it,
that study would be the basis of his monetarist theories about the future,
and they proved uncannily accurate. They allowed him to see the stagflation
of the Nixon and Carter years coming long before it even had a name, and to
prescribe a remedy: a stable money supply and a free market.
The fashionable experts then in charge of the American economy (and who were
making a muck of it) dismissed Milton Friedman's ideas as hopelessly
antiquated. Imagine: Someone who still believed in the free market in the
Age of Keynes!
As Richard Nixon commented at the time, in one of his many misapprehensions,
we're all Keynesians now. Mr. Nixon certainly was, and it showed in his
inability to get a grip on economic reality. His idea of an economic remedy
was to order wage-and-price controls, which proved about as effective as
using leeches on a dead man.
Not until Ronald Reagan came along were Milton Friedman's ideas put into
practice. In the rosy afterglow of the long-running economic boom that the
Reagan tax cuts launched, it is easy to forget what a shock Dr. Friedman's
ideas produced when the Fed first put them into effect under Paul Volcker
and, later, by the now sainted Alan Greenspan. The immediate result of Dr.
Friedman's ideas was the Reagan Recession and the near-hysterical reaction
to it.
It took courage to stick with Dr. Friedman's ideas, but courage was just
what Ronald Reagan brought to the presidency, and it eventually paid off.
Eventually can be a long, cruel time when the intellectual elite are
constantly warning that these new ideas, or rather old ones, will never
work. When they did, no one was more surprised than conventional economists.
Some were so surprised they could never admit it. John Kenneth Galbraith,
for example, would never wholly renounce his Keynesian faith.
Doctors Friedman and Galbraith were personal friends despite their
profoundly different ideas. These two boon companions would on occasion
stage one of their Mutt-and-Jeff debates. The 6-foot-8 Dr. Galbraith would
tower over the 5-foot-3 Dr. Friedman until the debate started. Then it would
soon become clear who towered over whom. In the world of economists, Milton
Friedman proved to be the little giant.
When he began propounding his old/new ideas, established economists either
ignored Dr. Friedman or denounced him. Here is Lawrence Summers, the former
secretary of the Treasury in the Clinton administration, but a fair and
candid man nevertheless, on the subject of Milton Friedman: "He was the
devil figure of my youth. Only with time have I come to have large amounts
of grudging respect. And with time, increasingly ungrudging respect." Much
like the rest of the world.
By the time of his death at 94, Milton Friedman bestrode the world of
economics the way Keynes had before him. The next great figure in that field
will have to displace Friedman as he displaced Keynes. It's hard to imagine
such a thing ever happening, imprisoned as each generation is in its own
time. But whatever Milton Friedman's reputation in the years ahead, it will
always be tied to the one great idea and ideal to which he devoted a
vigorous mind, an indomitable spirit, and a most civil manner: the freedom
of man. |