When the news came that the stock market had broken 13,000 Wednesday
afternoon, I thought I heard the strangest sound in the background: quiet
sobbing.
Of course! That had to be the New York Times' man in the economy and
all-around pundit, Paul Krugman, crying in his beer. Though, given today's
economy, he's probably drinking the best single-malt Scotch on the market.
But nothing seems to depress this expert like good news. Here the stock
market is at an all-time high, the unemployment rate keeps dropping below
low, but our expert keeps warning that The End Is Near. It's kind of funny
in an unintended way. Think Woody Allen doing Shakespearean tragedy.
For just a moment there, when the stock market had its big hiccup so long
ago-back in February, which now seems the Middle Ages-Dr. Krugman could
scarcely contain his glee. He was Mr. Happiness himself. For at last his
hour had come. Hot dawg! All those sinners would see the error of their ways
now!
Exulting in the coming woe, our own academic Eeyore dashed off a fantasy
dated February 27, 2008, in which he looked back-with ill-concealed
satisfaction-at the dire fate he'd long foreseen for the American economy.
His cheery vision began: "The great market meltdown of 2007 began exactly a
year ago, with a 9 percent fall in the Shanghai market, followed by a
416-point slide in the Dow."
That classic of a column foresaw the disaster that would surely be under way
by now, like a gathering economic tsunami: "For a couple of months after the
shock of Feb. 27, markets oscillated wildly, soaring on bits of apparent
good news, then plunging again. But by late spring, it was clear that the
self-reinforcing cycle of complacency had given way to a self-reinforcing
cycle of anxiety."
Translation: Come on, Catastrophe! After all, this is a guy who lives for a
repeat of 1929.
Not till the end of that column did Dr. Krugman hedge his doomsday scenario
in case the American economy rebounded. And rebound it did. Fast but not
furious. Just steadily. Prosperity has become almost routine. And poor Paul
Krugman has lapsed into a resentful funk. He seems to have fallen silent on
the subject of The Great Meltdown of 2007-much like a professional mourner
who keeps waiting for the big funeral that never comes.
Not since Stan Laurel has sadness been so funny. Here our expert-he teaches
economics somewhere in the Ivy League, doesn't he?-was fully expecting to be
followed by a whole herd of bears into the biggest sell-off since the
dot-com bubble burst, and what happened was Š pretty much nothing. Just
another undramatic recovery. Dang.
It's not just Dr. Krugman's recurrent prophecies of another Crash that
impress-he's been making those since memories runneth not to the
contrary-but the uncanny effect he has on the market. He no sooner predicts
disaster than the dawgone thing goes sky-high again, setting new records.
Like the hoofer who's told to play Sophocles but can't stop breaking into
musical comedy.
Surely another dip in the market is bound to come-so long as there's a
business cycle-but Paul Krugman's magic touch keeps delaying it, turning
every down into still another unstoppable up.
Continued... |