Even though she may get more votes, Sen. Hillary Clinton will lose Pennsylvania tomorrow. Her contention that she, not Sen. Barak Obama, is the more viable of two Democrats going head-to-head against Senator John McCain will gain no traction when Pennsylvania tallies its primary votes. Trailing Obama by more than 700,000 in the overall popular vote, Clinton must not only significantly close that margin, but more importantly, demonstrate she can decisively win the key battleground states, such Pennsylvania. She needs a big boost from the Keystone State to jettison her through the remaining critical primaries in North Carolina and Indiana. Pennsylvania Democratic voters will provide no such support.

Co-incidently, but not irrelevant, Obama leads Clinton by approximately 141 delegates. Pennsylvania offers up 188 delegates, which 103 are elected by congressional districts. If you can cut through the gobbledy gook of the state Democratic Committee’s 30 page business plan on how to run delegates, 158 of 187 total delegates, of which 103 delegates are from each congressional district are allocated on the results of the actual primate vote. Philadelphia and its critical suburbs offer up 43 delegates, Pittsburgh, 22. Bottom line is that Philly and Pittsburgh decide 63% of the delegates selected by Congressional District.

The bad news for the former First Lady:

First, most of the major newspapers, Philadelphia Inquirer, Philadelphia Daily News, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, the Allentown Morning Call, Harrisburg Patriot News, York Daily Record have endorsed Obama. Only the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review endorsed Clinton, the Erie Times-News straddles the fence. Ironically, (as of press-time) the Scranton Times-Tribune, from where Clinton’s parents hail, has declined to endorse the favorite-daughter. All of the critical Philadelphia suburban newspapers making endorsements, went Obama.

Secondly, the latest press accounts shows Obama outspent Clinton $10 million to $4 million on television in Pennsylvania. In this past week, Obama outspent Clinton $3 million to $1.4 million. $1 million a week is a big buy in TV Land for Pennsylvania.

Third, Obama has succeeded in getting more Front Page ink by staging better events, the Independence Mall rally, with 35,000 in attendance was a campaign record.

Fourth, Clinton didn’t run a full slate delegates, a cardinal sin in a state like Pennsylvania.

Fifth, all opinion polls shows Clinton’s once double-digit lead now shrunk to six points or less. The Zogby Poll, conducted after the televised debate, shows Clinton with a two point lead, one point below the 4.1 point margin of error, with 8% still undecided. The Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll has both statistically dead-even, Clinton 47% to Obama 46% of Lehigh Valley voters, one of the traditional steel-town regions that Billy Joel waxes about in Allentown. The more prestigious and traditionally reliable Quinnipiac Poll had Clinton and the Franklin & Marshal poll, by the dean of Pennsylvania’s political analysts, Terry Madonna, pegged Clinton with a 6 point lead. But these polls were conducted over a week ago, before the ABC televised debate and the climactic Obama TV rush. Continued...