After all is said and done, the April 22nd Pennsylvania Primary didn’t tell us anything we already didn’t know. On the Democratic side, voters are still splintered by age and income; and on the Republican side, the conservatives still have not embraced McCain. Yes, there was a Republican primary in Pennsylvania. And its results don’t bode well for the Grand Old Party.
Clinton won Pennsylvania’s beauty pageant by a 214,000 margin, or 54.6% to Obama’s 45.4% a 9.2 point spread. And yes, Clinton won the "bitter, small town" vote, i.e., senior citizens, Roman Catholics, Irish, Polish, high school degrees, blue collar, the traditional "Reagan Democrats" (or as we Pennsylvanians call them "Rizzocrats"). And yes, Obama won the affluent, college educated, suburban white vote along with complete dominance of the black vote.
What is more disturbing however, is that on the Republican side, 239,913 or over one-quarter of all Republicans casting ballots, 27.2% to be exact, voted against McCain despite the indisputable fact he is the presumptive GOP nominee. Congressman Paul won 15.9% of the Pennsylvania Republican primary, while former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, without even lifting a finger, won 11.3% of the vote. This is while the Governor was accompanying Senator McCain on the "It’s Time for Action" campaign visits.
Ultra-liberal columnist Frank Rich of the New York Times makes hay out of this point, notwithstanding that most Republicans stayed at home. But 827,000 Republicans did go to the polls, which represents 26% of the 3.1 million registered GOP. Assuming the recent — and downward trending of — GOP turnout in Presidential election years, the primary turnout represents 35% of an expected GOP turnout in November.
Such a rejection does not bode well for McCain. Traveling to Harrisburg two days after the primary, there were still scores of Ron Paul signs on the highway. Conscientious Ron Paul volunteers were even picking up signs off the Interstate. How often do you see this? What motivates Ron Paul supporters to take such measures when the nomination was decided a month and half ago?
What should be more disturbing is that the number of votes obtained by Messrs. Huckabee and Paul, 239,000 is greater than 215,000 margin that separated Senators Clinton and Obama. Given that the 2000 Gore-Lieberman Democratic ticket defeated the GOP Bush-Cheney in the Keystone State by 205,000 votes in 2000 and the Kerry-Edwards ticket won by 144,000 votes in 2004, these are 220,000 voters we Republicans can ill-afford to lose, all the more so since Pennsylvania now has over a million more registered Democrats than Republicans. These figures don’t include independents, no-party and registered Green voters, who could not vote in primary, as Pennsylvania primaries are closed, and as a whole have been migrating toward the Democrats since 2006, particularly in the Philadelphia suburbs.
The GOP gains nothing by swapping conservative votes for Independent votes. McCain can win only if he attracts Independent voters while retaining conservative voters. Unless Bush enters the witness protection program, the fall campaign will be among the most difficult GOP campaigns since Watergate. Ripping a page out of Karl Rove’s 2004 play book tagging Kerry early and often as a flip-flopper, the Democrats have already gotten the upper "media" hand labeling McCain as ad nauseam continuation of Bush-Cheyney in 2008.
I don’t want to sound the clarion call, as November 4th is, politically speaking, a light year away. But if the Pennsylvania Republican primary tells us anything, it is that conservative Republicans better get their act together. While we don’t agree with the Arizonan on everything, isn’t it better that we stand united than to allow the Democrats to shred us apart. Is McCain so indigestible to conservative Republicans that we’re willing to lease 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue to a black McGovern? Is McCain’s service to his country, of which six years were spent inside the Hanoi Hilton so objectionable that we default the election to a inexperienced and immature Democrat whose pastor preaches that God should damn America?
While everyone was focusing on reading the tea of the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary, the Pennsylvania Republican Primary message is simple and straight forward: wake up and smell the coffee.
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