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Friday, March 09, 2007
Rebecca Hagelin :: Townhall.com Columnist
Thawing out from a "demographic winter"
by Rebecca Hagelin
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When the U.S. population officially hit the 300-million mark last October, there weren’t any celebrations. Most news organizations took note of it and moved on. Environmentalists and other liberals crabbed about having more people around to consume precious resources.

Fortunately, not everyone harbored such a jaundiced view of this milestone.

“We should celebrate more people, not bemoan population growth,” said Dr. Allan Carlson, founder of the World Congress of Families. “With birth rates plummeting in the industrialized world, America’s population growth is a hopeful sign.”

He’s absolutely right. When societies forget the fact that families are the very basis of civilization -- that they are, in essence, society in a microcosm, reduced to its most fundamental building block -- it’s from that point that they begin a slow but unmistakable decline into helplessness and despair. That’s why the World Congress is sounding the alarm -- most notably at the May 11-13, 2007 “World Congress of Families IV,” to be held in Warsaw, Poland. It’s billed as “the world’s largest conference of pro-family leaders and grass roots activists.” And that’s exactly what we need -- an unprecedented push from the pro-family forces -- if we’re to have any hope of solving a problem of this magnitude.

For the time being, we’re doing okay, fertility-wise, here in the U.S. Our fertility rate is 2.11 births per woman, right at what demographers consider replacement level. But other parts of the world are in serious trouble. According to the World Congress, the overall fertility rate for Europe is only 1.3. In Italy, it’s 1.2. In Spain, 1.1.

These kinds of numbers, quite frankly, spell doom for a country if left unchecked. There’s a reason that columnist Mark Steyn, who spoke at The Heritage Foundation in January, calls his latest book “America Alone” -- we’re about the only Western nation not in the throes of what he calls a “death spiral.” Consider Russia, with a fertility rate of 1.2. Britain is also below replacement level, at 1.6 births per woman. So is France, at 1.89 -- and a third of those births are not of the French, but of the new Muslim community that has moved into the country. Plainly put, France will very soon become a country that is not French at all.

It seems ridiculous to have to point out something so obvious, but a society that ceases to reproduce is on the road to extinction.

“How can a declining population maintain a nation’s infrastructure?” Carlson asks. “Who will man Europe’s factories, farms and armies? Who will pay the taxes for essential social services? A birth dearth provides far more challenges than a population explosion.” Continued...

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About The Author

Rebecca Hagelin, a vice president of The Heritage Foundation is the author of Home Invasion: Protecting Your Family in a Culture that's Gone Stark Raving Mad and runs the Web site HomeInvasion.org.

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Subject: Tax Break
I don't want to pay for Derek Leaberry's children. It is enough to pay for my own. Anybody having children for the exemptions is doing the same thing as the welfare mothers.

Demographics is pretty complex...
... accounting for birth rates, death rates, life expectancies, migration, education, economic productivity, and a host of other factors.

But understanding what to do isn't really that difficult. There is plenty of land and resources in the world to support virtually unlimited population growth. Necessity is the mother of invention and any time we face a scarcity of resources like housing or food or energy, we either invent new technology, find alternatives, become frugal, move on, or something. We never would have had or needed high rise buildings without population growth. We never would have developed mechanized intensive farming without population growth. And on the up side, without population growth, we may not have ever had the inventors and entreprenuers who have improved our lives. In this regard, imagine life without modern medicine, air-conditioning, automobiles and airplanes, television, computers, washers and dryers, and a host of other things that simply weren't available 100 years ago, or if they were, they were virtually unavailable to most and substantially inferior to the things available today.

The interesting part of the issue for me is how do we encourage the development of entreprenuers and inventors and others who will help make life better whether our population grows or stabilizes or even if it declines. I can't see how using government to redistribute wealth and restrain innovation is going to contribut to anything but a death spiral. On the other hand, when people are left more or less to their own devices, their own survival instincts and desires kick in and they work to make their lives better. Unless they try to hurt others in the process by theft, fraud, assault, etc, then the government should let them be. If there is no gravy train for immigrants, they will be less inclined to come and when they get here, more inclined to assimilate. We don't need to limit immigrants to foreign professionals, we just need to stop subsidizing them from the public till when they arrive. Until and unless the government finally becomes completely socialized in this country, ambition and a work ethic combined with some common sense and some book learning will lead to prosperity and a good life. The values promoted by most major religions and family ties and community relations they foster will improve ones prospects and make the country a better place to live. That doesn't mean it will be a bad place to live when a large part of the population denies the wisdom of the ages and focses on short term self-gratification and sloth. It only means we need to take steps where we can to ensure that our government focuses on enforcing and protecting property rights and stops becoming the agent theft through taxation and entitlement programs that simply redistribute wealth.

The reason socialist governments have never succeeded in the long run is because they cannot control human emotions and desires. They cannot innovate and, in fact, end up discouraging innovation through increased control over existing processes, trying to make incremental improvements in our economy and lives without the knowledge that is distributed in each and every person. No matter how elite, the elite class may be, it is the fatal conceit for them to believe they understand better than the rest of the world how the world should operate. It is too bad that Hayek and his ilk are not more widely taught in public schools and more widely understood and admired by the politically powerful and so called elites.
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