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Wednesday, July 19, 2006
Tony Blankley :: Townhall.com Columnist
Strategic confusion
by Tony Blankley
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Who won Tuesday's presidential debate?


In a remarkable week, nothing was more remarkable than the following announcement (reported, but not sufficiently, by the American media) from the government of Saudi Arabia:

"Viewing with deep concern the bloody, painful events currently taking place in Palestine and Lebanon, the Kingdom [of Saudi Arabia] would like to clearly announce that a difference should be drawn between legitimate resistance and uncalculated adventures carried out by elements inside [Lebanon] and those behind them [i.e. Iran and Syria] without consultation with the legitimate authority in their state and without consultation or coordination with Arab countries, thus creating a gravely dangerous situation exposing all Arab countries and their achievement to destruction with those countries having no say."

Of course the statement ended with the routine commitment "to protect the Arab Nation from Israeli oppression and transgression."

But for Saudi Arabia to condemn Muslim attacks on Israel -- and in the middle of an Israeli/Muslim war no less -- is profound evidence of how much the world is changing in the face of rising Islamist radicalism in general and expanding Iranian hegemonic objectives in particular.

Even before the current war, experts have noted some envy and competition between Sunni Al Qaeda and Shia Hezbollah, while other experts have noted that Sunni and Shia terrorists sometimes work together against common Western targets. But most Western experts -- along with the rest of us -- are at a deep analytical disadvantage in understanding the subtler elements of Sunni/Shia interaction -- and their significance for American national security.

For example, we have a high interest in marshalling Sunni Saudi, Egyptian, Jordanian and Gulf states' fear and hostility toward Shia Iranian expansionist policy. At the same time, how does that effect our effort to stand up a largely Shia government in Iraq?

Shrewdly parsing and exploiting the dichotomies of Shia/Sunni, Arab/Persian, national and tribal loyalties is almost certainly a precondition to formulating and executing a successful strategy for war against worldwide radical Islamist military and cultural aggression. We have not yet come into possession of such shrewdness. But that we are in such a struggle should not be a matter of doubt by sentient people.

And yet, listening to and participating in war debate this last week, I am struck by how few politicians, pundits and journalists even now accept the proposition that the West (and India, Africa and Asia) is facing such a remorseless threat.

Concededly, the terror attacks by radical Islamists in Bali, Bombay, Beslan, London, Thailand, Madrid, Jordan, New York, Saudi Arabia, the Pentagon, Kenya, West Africa, Somalia, Chechnya, Afghanistan, Iraq, Israel, Lebanon, Nigeria, The West Bank, Gaza, Munich, Sudan, Indonesia, etc. were not all carried out by the same group for precisely the same reasons directed by a single high command.

Sometimes there is a vertical command and control function (bin Laden definitely ordered the attack on the Twin Towers and Pentagon, and Iran probably ordered the Hezbollah attacks on Israel last week). Often there is no such command and control. Continued...

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About The Author
Tony Blankley served as press secretary to then Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Newt Gingrich. He is the author of The West's Last Chance: Will We Win the Clash of Civilizations? .
 
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Subject: There is "No Strategic Confusion" ~ IMO
Having spend some years in both Iran & Saudi Arabia, here are my views on the subject article:
The Saudi Royal Family, who are of the Sunni Tribe have always hated and feared the Iranian Shia Tribe, especially the group across the waters in Iran. For example in Iran the Gulf is know as the Gulf of Iran or Persian Gulf, while In Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Emirates it is known as the Arabian Gulf. The Saudi Royal Family always felt secure while The Shah was in power in Iran, because they knew he owed his allegiance to the United States and there was no way that the US would allow or condone any invasion across the Gulf, to his neighbors to the South. Ever since the Shah has been deposed, the Royal Family of Saudi Arabia have been very uneasy about their neighbor across the waters and their expansionists aspirations. The Royal Family became panic stricken in the early 90's, when Saddam invaded and took over Kuwait. They were the principal motivators that bought us into Desert Storm, to liberate Kuwait. The Saudi's view the Hezbollah as agents of the Iranian Government, pure and simple. There is no doubt in my mind that the boarder clash, which sparked the current conflict between Israel and the Hezbollah in Lebanon, was pure and simply a staged event to take the World focus and heat off of Iran, concerning their development of a nuclear weapon. You will notice, all of a sudden the Iranian Nuclear issue has taken a back seat with everyone, including the UN. Mission accomplished and nobodies the wiser, except Saudi Arabia, who is sitting in the middle of this rats nest and knows and recognizes what is going on. As I said it once, I'll say it again, the whole Middle East situation today would have a totally different complexion, if that Nimrod of a President Jimmy Carter had just stepped up and supported the Shah of Iran, when he called for our assistance and kept the Shah in Power. Today the Shah's son would be the leader of Iran and we would have a cohesive but fragile co-existence in the Middle East. Iran was constantly keeping Iraq in check, when the Shah was in power and he would have continued to do that today and we probably would have never gone into Iraq. Jimmy Carter is also responsible for the situation currently brewing in North Korea. Jimmy Carter has done more damage to the U.S. than anyone will ever be able to calculate,IMO. ( End of rant )

Way to tell them Warrier
No war was ever won by trying to be nice. It't not okay to start a war but if you are in one it's necessary to go all out. In Vietnam it often seemed that the politicians had an "if they stomp on our toe we will only step on theirs back mentality" and we Know how that worked. There are really only two ways to deal with a bully: surrender or beat the snot out of him.
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