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Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Green "Disparate Impact"
By Thomas Sowell
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It was front-page news on the January 14th issue of the San Francisco Chronicle that blacks by the tens of thousands have left the San Francisco Bay area since the 1990 census.

Since my book Applied Economics analyzed this situation a few years ago, it was nice to see that the information has finally reached the San Francisco Chronicle, though they have yet to explain the politics and the economics behind the exodus.

Unfortunately, this phenomenon is not peculiar to the San Francisco Bay Area and blacks are not the only group being forced out of upscale liberal communities in California. It is much the same story in Monterey and Los Angeles, for example.

Skyrocketing housing prices are forcing out families with children, as well as blacks and other people with low or even moderate incomes.

But these runaway housing prices in California did not just happen for no reason.

Prior to 1970, California housing prices were very similar to housing prices in the rest of the country. In more recent times, it has not been uncommon for California homes to cost three times what homes cost nationwide.

What happened in the 1970s was that severe government restrictions on building became common in coastal California. With supply restricted and demand not restricted, it was inevitable that prices would soar beyond many people's ability to pay.

The main impetus behind severe restrictions on building is environmentalist zealots who demand that vast amounts of land be set aside as "open space" on which nothing can be built.

It is not uncommon for substantial proportions of all the land in an entire county -- sometimes more than half -- to be set aside as "open space."

Environmentalists often talk as if they are trying to save the last few patches of greenery from being paved over, when in fact 90 percent of the land in the United States is undeveloped and forests alone cover more area than all the cities and towns in the country combined.

Behind much of the lofty and pretty talk are some ugly and selfish realities.

People who already own their homes in an upscale community pay no price for making it hard for others to move into their community. On the contrary, the value of the homes they already own shoots up when they restrict the supply of new homes.

In other words, they can keep out the less affluent people -- or, as they put it, "preserve the character of the community" -- while benefiting themselves economically in the name of green idealism. Continued...

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About The Author
Thomas Sowell is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institute and author of Basic Economics: A Citizen's Guide to the Economy.
 
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Subject: Complete nonsense
Sowell is spewing complete nonsense. The build-able land scarcity in Coastal California, indeed the West Coast , is primarily because build-able land is very constricted to narrow areas between steep mountains and the water, or in narrow inland valleys. Then, in the period of 1945 through 1990 most of the build-able land near the San Francisco Bay was built out with extremely low density housing - suburbs. It is not a coincidence that housing prices started their really steep rise once the buildable land was used up.
Note I have not mentioned land restriction by environmentalists. The FACT is that the vast majority of the land put into park land is unbuildable - very steep hills or on ridge tops that are not affordable to build on.
As for the run-up in housing prices in the last decade, I have to assume Sowell has been brain dead for the last 10 years because this is a phenomenon that has affected the entire US. For example, my old house in Atlanta doubled in price in 8 years between 2000 and today. Atlanta has no land restrictions of any kind and builds new housing as fast as humanly possible. Considering that wages in Atlanta are much lower than here in the Bay Area, the housing costs are similar
The price increases NATIONWIDE in the last 10 years are due almost exclusively to 1) cheap money (extremely low interest rates), 2) "Innovative" lending tools - i.e., interest-only loans, sub-prime loans, 3) Disconnecting the original lender from owning the loan which thereby disconnects the original lender from any risk whatsoever, and 4) massive fraud brought about by #3. All these factors led to wild speculation on housing to the point some buyers were driving prices up to ridiculous levels simply for investment purposes.
Sowell is very obviously touting a biased opinion against land conservation, not telling any version of the truth based on known facts.



Please keep in mind
... that the real estate prices referenced by Sowell, which are driven by artificially restricted supply, are not the reason why people are defaulting on mortgage loans.

I don't see any of that mistaken conflation here, but I do see it in every discussion of the sagging housing market and the increase in foreclosures.

The two phenomena are related, but they are not the same phenomenon. The people defaulting on their mortgages in California are the middle class homeowners and investors, who generally default on properties valued at under $800K. Mortgages around $350-450K, for about a 2800-square foot suburban house, are probably the most commonly defaulted on.

If the middle class could afford to buy in the older cities, and have good schools and convenient methods of moving kids around for activities, homebuyers would look there. The fact that they can't -- the supply restriction Sowell refers to -- is what is driving people to the exurban developments in inland California.

The people who are defaulting on mortgages here couldn't have qualified to spend over a $1m on a house, in the older cities, even with creative financing. So when we think about an "overvalued" housing market, it's not actually the $1.2m 800-square-foot bungalow in the Bay area that is overvalued. That's not the property that can't be resold for what the owner owes on it. It's the family-size house in central Riverside County -- which cost the same as a similar house in many of the suburbs of Atlanta, Chicago, Washington DC, or Miami.
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