President Joe Biden gave a speech on Tuesday in his hometown of Scranton that was meant to highlight his hopes and plans for the economy. It came off as a rather desperate move, which isn't surprising given how poorly Biden fares in the polls overall against former and potentially future President Donald Trump, but also regarding the economy. That another poll is out highlighting economic concerns really doesn't bode well for the unpopular incumbent president.
The Economist/YouGov releases a new poll every week or so, with many of the same questions, though usually with different takeaways. In each poll, we're treated to the state of the race between Biden and Trump, which has been rather close lately. Sure enough, among registered voters for the poll conducted April 14-16, both candidates enjoy 44 percent support.
Economist/YouGov, April 14-16
— YouGov America (@YouGovAmerica) April 17, 2024
If an election for president were going to be held now and the Democratic nominee was Joe Biden and the Republican nominee was Donald Trump, would you vote for...
Trump: 44%
Biden: 44%
(Among registered voters)https://t.co/m5IoAmc8rP pic.twitter.com/S5SQPEMLxz
However, Trump enjoys more support when it comes to who overall respondents and registered voters think will win, as 42 percent think the former president will win in this rematch from 2020. Thirty-five percent of overall respondents and 37 percent of registered voters think Biden will win.
Among the takeaways for this week's poll is "Challenges for Biden and the economy."
The takeaways highlight for instance how just 38 percent approve of Biden's job as president, while 59 percent disapprove among all respondents, which is slightly better among registered voters, with 40 percent approving and 58 percent disapproving. On "jobs and the economy" specifically, 40 percent of overall respondents and 41 percent of registered voters approve, while 54 percent of overall respondents and 55 percent of registered voters disapprove.
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His approval rating on "inflation/prices" is even worse, and is actually among Biden's worst issues, as just 31 percent of overall respondents and 33 percent of registered voters approve of his handling of the issue, while 62 percent of overall respondents and 63 percent of registered voters disapprove.
It's not the only issue where Biden faces such low approval ratings, as his approval rating on foreign policy, "taxes and government spending," guns, and crime are also in the low 30s. Luckily for Biden, this poll doesn't ask about immigration, another issue where he fares particularly poorly, per other polls. But what is really bad news for Biden on the inflation issue is that the takeaways note that this is "the issue named by the most Americans as their most important, among those included in the poll."
Seventy-seven percent of voters said "inflation/prices" was a "very important" issue to them when it comes to issue importance, while 73 percent of voters said so about "jobs and the economy."
Sure enough, the poll also showed that overall, and by 9 percentage points, "inflation/prices" was the top issue selected by overall respondents, with 21 percent saying so, compared to 12 percent saying immigration. The margin is narrower among registered voters, though, by 19-14 percent in favor of inflation versus immigration.
Twenty-four percent of Republicans choose inflation and immigration as their top issue, with 21 percent of Independents saying inflation is their top issue. Tellingly, though, is how even Democrats say it's their top issue, with 17 percent saying so.
Economist/YouGov, April 14-16
— YouGov America (@YouGovAmerica) April 17, 2024
% whose most important issue is:
Democrats
• Inflation/prices: 17%
• Climate change & environment: 14%
• Health care, abortion, civil rights: 12% each
Republicans
• Immigration, inflation/prices: 24% eachhttps://t.co/blmCOBr0Bv pic.twitter.com/KDjexyH63H
The poll's takeaways also highlight how pessimistic the country is about the economy. Fifty-seven percent of overall respondents and 54 percent of registered voters think the economy is "getting worse." This includes a plurality or even majority of Biden's key voters thinking so, including 60 percent of females, 43 percent of black respondents, 55 percent of Hispanics, and 51 percent of those 18-29. Fifty percent of moderates and 65 percent of Independents also think it's "getting worse."
While Democrats and Biden voters are more likely to say the economy is "getting better," only a plurality say so. This includes 46 percent of respondents who plan to vote for Biden in 2024, 41 percent of liberals, and 39 percent of Democrats.
Further, a plurality of all respondents and registered voters, 44 and 45 percent, respectively, say they are "worse off financially than you were a year ago," with just 12 percent of overall respondents and 15 percent of registered voters saying they are "better off."
The most likely demographic to say they are "better off" are those who plan to vote for Biden in 2024, and even then only 26 percent of them say so. A majority, 52 percent, say they are doing "about the same" compared to last year.
This poll was conducted April 14-16 with 1,574 total respondents with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. Among the 1,358 registered voters, there was a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
The Economist/YouGov poll is not the only one to fare badly for Biden on the economy, far from it, which makes Tuesday's speech look even more pathetic. CNN's John Berman confronted Biden reelection co-chair Mitch Landrieu with this unfortunate reality when Landrieu appeared on the network to preview Biden's speech.
There's also the recent poll from The New York Times/Siena College, which shows that 52 percent say the economy is "poor," as well as the CBS News poll, where 61 percent say the economy is "fairly bad" or "very bad" and the poll from The Wall Street Journal from earlier this month, where 63 percent of voters say the economy is "bad."
Along with that edge Trump has on who respondents think will win, and the obvious issue advantage – which has been expressed in a slew of other polls, including the ones Berman mentioned – this race ought to be Trump's to win. In some ways it still is. He's still leading in the key battleground states, with Guy doing an analysis of recent roundup of the latest on Wednesday. His RealClearPolling advantage is at +0.4 against Biden, which is better than his +0.2 earlier this week. That he's leading at all and has for many months, when Biden led throughout the 2020 race, is still a significant positive.
Nevertheless, the race is getting closer and more competitive and there's still a little more than six months until Election Day. Biden quite possibly has room to grow, while Trump has ground to lose, and vice versa. This poll, through multiple questions, also reveals that Republicans are more excited for Trump than Democrats are for Biden.
For instance:
- Forty-six percent of those who say they'll vote for Trump in 2024 are "very enthusiastic," while just 31 percent of Biden voters are.
- Although 56 percent of overall respondents and registered voters say they don't want Trump running again this year, 60 percent of overall respondents and 58 percent of registered voters say they don't want Biden running again. Those who say they'll vote for Trump (83 percent) are also much more likely to say they want him to run again than those who say they'll vote for Biden want him to run again (64 percent).
- Those who say they'll vote for Trump are also more likely to think Trump will win than those who say they're voting for Biden think Biden will win, at 84-76 percent.
- Those who say they'll vote for Trump in 2024 are much more likely to say they are "enthusiastic" about him running, with 62 percent saying so, compared to just 39 percent of those who say they'll vote for Biden in 2024 who are enthusiastic about Biden running.
- Fifty-seven percent of those who say they'll vote for Biden in 2024 say he cares "a lot" about people like him, but that number is 66 percent among those who say they'll vote for Trump in 2024 when it comes to Trump caring at that level.
- Just 36 percent of those who say they'll vote for Biden in 2024 think he's a "very strong leader," and are more likely to say that he's a "somewhat strong" leader, with 39 percent saying so. Regarding those who say they'll vote for Trump, 74 percent consider him to be "very strong."
In addition to holding on to his base, it would be wise of Trump to focus on the issues where he has an edge, considering he does have such a wide edge, and also hope that this will actually be an election where people turn out to vote on the issues in order for such poll results to really mean anything.
