It's been a rather bad week for President Joe Biden and the polls. He's been performing badly before, and then it looked like he wasn't doing as badly, and now former and potentially future President Donald Trump is back with some pretty healthy leads once more. We've already covered a few of those polls, including from CNN and Harvard CAPS-Harris. Guy has also touched a bit on the CBS News/YouGov poll, including in his VIP from earlier today.
The CBS News poll addressed battleground states, including Senate races there, as Guy focused on. It also addressed Trump versus Biden in the 2024 election. Many voters say they've already decided who they're going to vote for, and that their minds are set. This close and competitive presidential election will likely come down to voters in certain key swing states, which is why we've seen and are covering so many polls that focus on such states.
Among likely voters, Biden leads Trump by 51-49 percent in Michigan, while Trump leads Biden in both Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by 50-49 percent. Overall, RealClearPolling still shows Trump leading Biden by +1.2 in Michigan, by +1.8 in Wisconsin, and by +1.0 in Biden's home state of Pennsylvania.
MI/PA/WI tight
— Kabir K. / kabirkhanna.bsky.social (@kabir_here) April 28, 2024
Majorities rated state economy poorly four years ago in pandemic
Evaluating Trump today, voters focus on pre-pandemic economy, and many feel better off financially with him
But Trump/Biden elicit more worry than confidence, lots of angerhttps://t.co/a7C7J5GvCi pic.twitter.com/roBabh6mRu
Just as so many other polls have examined, the name of the game is the economy, which has been a terrible issue for Biden. It's also a great one for Trump, including when voters are asked to look back at how they regard the economy under Trump.
For instance, just 38 percent of voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania, and 42 percent in Wisconsin, say the state economy is "good." Voters in those three states were also asked "Looking back at when Donald Trump was President, as you remember it, was the condition of [your state's] economy," to which 62 percent in Michigan and Wisconsin and 61 percent in Pennsylvania said it was "good."
Most voters in these states hold negative views of their state’s economy..
— CBS News Poll (@CBSNewsPoll) April 28, 2024
And when they are asked to look back and recall the economy when Trump was president, most say it was good – a sentiment that gives the former president an advantage. https://t.co/LGdkkr16X0 pic.twitter.com/2NEMxKiqi2
Trump's overall handling of the economy is regarded much better than it was in 2020, which was not only the election year, but one where the COVID pandemic and lockdowns were top of mind for voters.
For instance, just 34 percent in Michigan said the economy was "good" in 2020, while that number was slightly worse in Pennsylvania in that 32 percent said so, and slightly better in Wisconsin, in that 36 percent said so.
As the CBS write-up mentioned:
As we've seen nationwide, voters today recall their state's economy "when Donald Trump was president" quite differently from the way it was viewed back in 2020, specifically. Ratings of the economy were quite low that year. So it may well be that when they think back about the Trump years, they're thinking back to before the pandemic. That matters a lot for how they perceive their choice of Trump and Mr. Biden now.
Thinking in retrospect about the economy under Trump while skipping over the pandemic in 2020 lends itself to a more favorable comparison with the economy now, under Mr. Biden. Moreover, many voters say their own finances today are worse than during the time before the pandemic.
Fifty percent of voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania, and a plurality of voters in Wisconsin, at 48 percent, say their state economy has gotten "worse" after the pandemic. All three states are under the control of Democratic governors.
Unfortunately for Biden, though, he no longer has the pandemic as an excuse.
When discussing the poll numbers during Sunday's episode of "Face the Nation," Anthony Salvanto, CBS News' executive director of elections and surveys pointed out that voters "seem to be skipping over the pandemic," adding "nnd that's exactly what that tells you in their memory of this. But it also explains now when you ask them, okay now let's look forward, they say--more say they feel they'd be financially better off under Donald Trump. And that cuts directly to vote. And that is helping the former president."
Donald Trump and President Biden are now running even in three battleground states that Biden won in 2020: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Why are they so close?
— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) April 28, 2024
Elections And Surveys Director @SalvantoCBS discusses our latest CBS News battleground polling: pic.twitter.com/dPDeRgLKEb
Similar to the economy overall is a question about voters' personal finances. A plurality of voters in all three states--46 percent in Michigan, and 44 percent in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania--say their personal finances are "worse" now versus before the pandemic. These voters are more likely to say that their finances are the "same" than they are to say "better."
In Michigan, 80 percent of likely voters said the economy was a "major factor" in deciding their vote, making it the most selected issue. Inflation wasn't far behind at 77 percent. Eighty percent also said the economy was a "major factor" in Wisconsin, followed by 74 percent of likely voters who said inflation. That number among likely voters saying the economy was a "major factor" in Pennsylvania was again 80 percent, with 75 percent saying inflation was. Coming in a close third was "the state of democracy," at 72 percent. Biden and his fellow Democrats have been that a focal point of the campaign, and Trump still leads him there.
The poll also asked about voters' personal finances when it comes to whether they think they would get better, worse, or stay the same based on if Biden wins another term or if Trump does.
A plurality of voters--48 percent in all three states--think their finances would be "worse" if Biden wins. Meanwhile, a plurality of voters--43 percent in Michigan, 47 percent in Pennsylvania, and 44 percent in Wisconsin--say their finances would be "better" if Trump wins.
Few say their own finances are better compared to before the pandemic.
— CBS News Poll (@CBSNewsPoll) April 28, 2024
So, we find in all three states, many believe they would be financially better off with Trump back in office.
Voters who feel this way are voting for him in large numbers. https://t.co/LGdkkr16X0 pic.twitter.com/HLX0EY079x
It's not merely the economy that's a problem for the current president. In all three states, Trump currently has an edge over Biden when it comes to who voters feel "better understands the needs and concerns of people like you." That's 43-38 percent over Biden in Michigan, 42-40 percent in Wisconsin, and 45-40 percent in Pennsylvania.
The poll's write-up highlights how in August 2020, Biden had an edge of 44-37 over Trump in Wisconsin.
Amid poor economic numbers, perceptions of both candidates have shifted a bit since four years ago
— Kabir K. / kabirkhanna.bsky.social (@kabir_here) April 28, 2024
Biden now narrowly trails Trump on "understands the needs and concerns of people like you" — he enjoyed an advantage on this question when we asked voters in PA and WI in 2020
2/3 pic.twitter.com/JgxZi9lzvV
While a significant number of voters in all three states say that Trump personally makes them feel "worried"--with 46 percent saying so in Michigan, 49 percent in Wisconsin, and 48 percent saying so in Pennsylvania--a majority of voters when asked to select all that apply for how Biden makes them feel said "worried." Fifty-four percent of voters in Michigan said so, while 54 percent in Wisconsin and 55 percent in Pennsylvania did.
Voters in all three states were also more likely to say that Biden made them feel "insecure" as opposed to Trump. By 41-34 percent, voters in Michigan said Biden made them feel "insecure" as opposed to Trump, while those numbers were at 42-34 percent in Wisconsin, and 41-32 percent in Pennsylvania.
Voters in those states were also more likely or likely or just as likely to say Trump made them feel "secure" as opposed to how he made them feel "insecure." Thirty-five percent of voters in Michigan said Trump made them feel "secure," while just 26 percent said Biden made them feel that way. In Wisconsin, 34 percent of voters said Trump made them feel "secure," while only 27 percent said Biden did. In Pennsylvania, 35 percent said Trump made them feel "secure," while again, only 27 percent said Biden made them feel "secure."
While Republicans candidates are trailing behind vulnerable Democratic incumbents where they're running in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin--they do still have the advantage of the incumbency, after all--it will certainly be interesting to watch if these candidates are able to ride Trump's coattails.
The polls were conducted April 19-25, with 1,287 registered voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points in Michigan; 1,306 registered voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points in Pennsylvania; and 1,245 registered voters along with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points in Wisconsin.
