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Friday, March 07, 2008
David Limbaugh :: Townhall.com Columnist
Democrats' Dicey Presidential Policies
by David Limbaugh
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Are Barack Obama's friends -- like Bill Ayers -- legitimate political issues?

The Democratic Party cashiered Howard Dean and replaced him, fairly early in the process, with the deeply flawed John Kerry when it became apparent that Dean was unelectable. But what if party honchos, much later in the game, conclude Obama is unelectable? Look out.

Right now, it's premature to conclude that Obama's momentum has been permanently quashed. He won 12 states in a row before losing three out of four Tuesday night. But for a candidate whose main attraction has been his superhuman aura to lose those major contests should be cause for concern.

In terms of delegate count, Obama still holds a commanding lead. According to ABC, if Clinton were to win all 12 remaining states with 55 percent of the vote, she would end up with 1,793 delegates, short of Obama's 1,841. If that scenario were reversed, Obama would end up with 1,902 and Clinton 1,732, which would leave Obama still short of the 2,024 delegates required.

Assuming no changes in the super-delegates from their present leanings, Obama would need to win 77 percent of the remaining pledged delegates to hit 2,024, which is extremely unlikely given the Democratic rules of proportional delegate allocation. But Clinton would need a staggering 94 percent.

Obviously, neither will win without movement of the super-delegates, and Obama will likely end up ahead in pledged delegates and overall popular vote even if Hillary continues to do well, including in the possible do-over contests in Michigan and Florida.

If Tuesday turns out to have been just a temporary speed bump for the Obama juggernaut and he regains his momentum, Clinton will have no credibility in urging Obama-prone super-delegates to defect.

But if things break Hillary's way from this point forward, the situation will get much dicier. Hillary might not have closed the gap, but she will have severely damaged Obama and his mystique of electability.

If at that point the party powers believe Obama has a glass jaw or doesn't have the staying power under fire to endure a contentious battle against John McCain, they'll face a dilemma of enormous proportions. Short of Obama voluntarily bowing out, how will they avoid an internecine bloodbath if the super-delegates break toward Hillary and give her the nomination even though she trails both in popular vote and pledged delegates?

The inevitable elephant in this room full of donkeys will be the racial component. The Democratic Party, which depends on some 90 percent of the African American vote, can scarcely afford such a scandal.

Of course, such concerns never seem to deter the Clintons. It's all about winning, no matter what the cost. Obama better concentrate on putting her away convincingly between now and then, which will be easier said than done when you consider the possible reasons for Hillary's turnaround. Continued...

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About The Author
David Limbaugh, brother of radio talk-show host Rush Limbaugh, is an expert in law and politics and author of Bankrupt: The Intellectual and Moral Bankruptcy of Today's Democratic Party.
 
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Subject: What happens if....
If the Democratic superdelegates can be persuaded to support Clinton, Democratic voters in the states that went for Obama will rightly feel disenfranchised. While polls show either Democrat beating McCain, I don't buy that at all. A compromised convention, where superdelegates outweigh ordinary voters, will produce a lot of stay-at-home Democrats this fall.

If McCain runs a hard-edged negative campaign, and pulls out all the stops to swiftboat Clinton or Obama, the Republicans can win the White House. All the McCain campaign has to do to Obama is repeat "Hussein" over and over again, accuse Obama of being a Muslim, and question his Christianity. Of course, McCain doesn't have to do this himself; the echo chambers of the Right will do this quite well. Just imagine: conservative media people harping on these themes 24/7. Just imagine: millions of evangelicals beating their gums as well.

As a Democrat, whether my party wins or loses, I hope it will begin to unravel the "McGovern reforms" that have handicapped the party with a bizarre system that is easily exploited by political insiders.

173d Sky Soldier
Sorry I didn't recognize the name right away. The gang is on Adams thread. BTW, check out George Will's last column. It is HIGHLY suspected that Hal Donahue & Robert gave themselves away as ONE AND THE SAME!

I REPORT! YOU DECIDE :)!
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